In this post-nominating conventions episode, I reflect on lessons learned as we approach the last 60 days before the election. Some key themes include: • How not to be a crosstab truther • Why elections aren't really that much like markets • How forecasts predict the past • Why campaigns don'
August 27, 2024
Election polling and voter turnout analysis are far more intricate than most people realize. From the challenges of non-response bias to the nuances of early voting patterns, understanding election forecasts requires a sophisticated approach beyond simple percentages and headlines. Listen to the episode on Spotify: The evolution of voter turnout
August 20, 2024
Public opinion polling has long been a cornerstone of understanding voter preferences and predicting election outcomes. However, a closer examination reveals significant gaps in representation and methodology, particularly concerning minority groups and emotional factors influencing political behavior. This exploration into the evolution and shortcomings of political polling challenges our understanding
August 13, 2024