Episode 8 - Reporting the Polls with Aaron Zitner, Wall Street Journal
Forget who's up or down in the polls - instead, think of polls as a way to understand what's changing in the electorate.
What polls reveal is the state of the electorate
Forget the headlines about who's up or down in the polls this week. The real story of the 2024 election is hidden in the details – the sometimes surprising trends in voter turnout, issue priorities, and demographic shifts that could upend the political narrative. In the latest episode of Cross Tabs, a veteran political reporter who heads the Wall Street Journal's polling project reveals what the data is really telling us about the state of the electorate, and how WSJ's approach differs from other news and polling collaborations.
You can listen to the episode here:
The battle for political salience
As the 2024 campaign heats up, both sides are pushing competing narratives about the issues that matter most to voters. Democrats want to make the election about abortion rights, while Republicans are hammering away on immigration and the economy. But according to Aaron Zitner, editor and reporter in the Washington Bureau of the Wall Street Journal, the real battle is over which issues will be most salient to voters on election day. Zitner argues that the side that succeeds in setting the terms of the debate could have a decisive advantage. But he also acknowledges that it's hard to poll on salience with traditional polling questions like "top issue."
The surprising trends hidden in the polls
Look beyond the topline numbers, and you'll find some surprising trends in the latest polling data. For example, while immigration and the economy consistently rank as top issues for voters overall, they are less important to the crucial bloc of "up for grabs" voters who could swing the election. Meanwhile, issues like abortion and Israel/Gaza are becoming increasingly salient to certain demographic groups, even if they don't register as top priorities for the electorate as a whole.
The groups that could decide the election
Zitner and his team are closely watching several key groups that could decide the election, including young voters, black men, and Latino men. While these groups have traditionally leaned Democratic, there are signs that some are becoming more open to voting Republican. At the same time, Biden is holding his own among groups like seniors and white non-college voters that were trending away from Democrats in recent years. The side that can turn out these crucial swing groups could have a major advantage in November.
How to be a savvy consumer of polls
With so much uncertainty in the electorate, it can be hard to know what to make of the latest polling data. Zitner offers some tips for how to be a savvy consumer of polls, including looking for consistency across multiple polls, understanding the methodology behind the numbers, and being wary of polls conducted by groups with a stake in the outcome. By approaching polls with a critical eye, readers can gain a clearer understanding of the state of the race – and the issues that could decide it.
Mentioned Articles & Other Resources
Poll: Election interest hits new low in tight Biden-Trump race (NBC News)
- NBC found that interest in the election is at a low for this point in an election year, dating back to 2012.
Five Takeaways From the WSJ Swing-State Poll (Wall Street Journal)
- A video package that discusses the key findings from the Wall Street Journal's swing state poll, including the observation that about a third of voters are still not firmly committed to a candidate.
- Also see the WSJ Election Dial, "to see how subtle shifts in turnout and candidate choice could sway the outcome of the 2024 election."
Survey of Consumers (University of Michigan)
- The Michigan consumer confidence survey calls people to gauge their opinions on the economy, revealing a disconnect between the pessimism heard in these surveys and the relative strength of economic fundamentals.
What Happened™ In 2022 (Catalist)
- According to Catalist data, Biden beat Hillary Clinton among white non-college voters by a small margin in the 2020 election.
- The Harvard poll of young people found that Israel and Gaza were a top issue for only about 2% of people under 30, raising questions about the political impact of these issues on younger voters.
More About Our Guest
Aaron Zitner is a reporter and editor in The Wall Street Journal's Washington bureau, focusing largely on how politics are driven by demographic and economic change. He also reports on trends in polling. Earlier, he was the Journal's national politics editor.
Previously, Aaron was deputy chief of the Washington bureau for the Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune and other Tribune newspapers. He helped lead presidential campaign coverage for the Los Angeles Times and served as the paper’s White House and Washington economics editor.
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