Episode 15: In Our Feelings with Dr. Camille Burge-Hicks
Public opinion polling has long been a cornerstone of understanding voter preferences and predicting election outcomes. However, a closer examination reveals significant gaps in representation and methodology, particularly concerning minority groups and emotional factors influencing political behavior. This exploration into the evolution and shortcomings of political polling challenges our understanding of public sentiment and calls for reevaluating how we measure and interpret voter attitudes.
Listen to the interview with Professor Burge-Hicks here:
Historical underrepresentation of Black Americans in polling
The history of political polling in the United States reveals a stark underrepresentation of Black Americans and other minority groups. Early pollsters like George Gallup often excluded Black voters from their samples, citing low voter turnout or legal barriers to voting as justification. This practice led to a skewed understanding of national sentiment, with polls primarily reflecting the opinions of white Americans. It wasn't until the late 1970s that concerted efforts were made to conduct regular polls targeting Black public opinion, highlighting a significant gap in our historical understanding of diverse political perspectives.
The role of emotions in shaping political behavior
While traditional polling focuses heavily on policy preferences and candidate approval ratings, recent research suggests that emotions play a crucial role in shaping political behavior. Feelings of anger, pride, fear, or enthusiasm can significantly influence how voters prioritize issues and make electoral decisions. However, most public polls fail to capture these emotional factors adequately. Incorporating questions about emotional responses to political events or candidates could provide a more nuanced understanding of voter motivations and improve the accuracy of electoral predictions.
Updating outdated survey measures for modern demographics
Many commonly used survey measures, such as the racial resentment scale, were developed decades ago and may no longer accurately reflect contemporary social dynamics. As society evolves, so should the tools we use to measure public opinion. There's a growing need to reassess and update these measures to ensure they capture the nuances of modern racial attitudes, gender identities, and other demographic factors. Updating and validating survey measures is crucial for maintaining the relevance and accuracy of political polling in a rapidly changing social landscape.
Qualitative research as a key to understanding voter motivations
While quantitative polling provides valuable data, incorporating qualitative research methods can offer deeper insights into voter motivations. Techniques such as focus groups, in-depth interviews, and open-ended survey questions allow respondents to explain their thoughts and feelings in their own words. This approach can reveal nuances and complexities that might be missed in traditional multiple-choice surveys. By combining quantitative and qualitative methods, pollsters and researchers can better understand public opinion and the factors driving political behavior.
Challenges in accurately representing diverse populations
Achieving truly representative samples in political polls remains a significant challenge. Factors such as language barriers, varying levels of political engagement, and differing communication preferences across demographic groups can lead to the underrepresentation of specific populations. Additionally, the increasing diversity of the American electorate makes it more challenging to capture the full spectrum of political opinions within limited sample sizes. Addressing these challenges requires innovative sampling techniques, multilingual survey options, and targeted outreach efforts to ensure all voices are adequately represented in political polling.
Responsible interpretation of poll results
As poll data consumers, journalists, and the general public are responsible for interpreting results critically and contextually. This includes understanding the limitations of sample sizes, considering the timing and methodology of the poll, and recognizing potential biases in question-wording or sample composition. Journalists reporting on polls should provide clear context about who was surveyed and how, while readers should seek out this information before concluding. We can avoid oversimplification and misinterpretation of public opinion trends by approaching poll results with a more nuanced understanding.
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Resources
The Superpollsters by David Moore
- Discusses early polling practices, including Gallup's policy of interviewing men over women at a 2:1 ratio due to assumptions about voting behavior
Polling and the Public by Herbert Asher
- Used to teach students about proper survey construction and design, including question-wording, response options, and balanced positive/negative framing
Historic Firsts by Evelyn Simien
- Explores how candidates who are "historic firsts" can create pride and enthusiasm among voters who identify with that group, leading to greater political engagement
The Philadelphia Negro by W.E.B. Du Bois and Isabel Eaton
- One of the first comprehensive studies of Black communities, based on 5,000 structured interviews and published in 1899, setting a foundation for survey research
National Survey of Black Americans
- A longitudinal study that started in 1979 and lasted until the early 1990s, focusing specifically on Black Americans' experiences and attitudes
Collaborative Multi-Racial Post-Election Study (CMPS)
- A recent study with large samples of racial and ethnic minorities allowing for in-depth comparisons across various demographic factors
American National Election Study (ANES)
- A key source of public opinion data used by scholars, though often criticized for having small samples of racial and ethnic minorities
Data Black Public Opinion Polls
- A short-lived project started in 1979 by Kenneth Clark and Black political and business leaders to conduct quarterly polls of Black Americans.
- Mentioned as early examples of polling that often excluded Black voices due to sampling strategies based on voting records
- Discussed alongside Gallup as early examples of polling with limited representation of Black Americans, though recent efforts have been made to add weights to the little survey data they do have on Black Americans
Our Guest
Dr. Camille Burge Hicks is an Associate Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science at Villanova University. Her research focuses on political psychology, race and ethnicity in American politics, and the role of emotions in shaping political behavior. Dr. Burge Hicks is particularly interested in exploring how group identities and emotional experiences influence public opinion and political decision-making among Black Americans and other minority groups. She employs quantitative and qualitative research methods, including survey experiments and focus groups, to gain deeper insights into these complex political dynamics. Her forthcoming book, Fired Up, Ready to Go: Pride, Shame, and Anger in Black Politics, examines the intersection of emotions and racial identity in political engagement.
Your Host
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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