Episode 14: The Nation's Data at Risk
A conversation with Connie Citro, a senior scholar at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Federal statistical agencies are the unsung heroes of American policymaking and business strategy, providing critical data that shapes decisions across all sectors. However, these vital institutions face unprecedented challenges that threaten the quality and availability of essential national statistics. From declining survey response rates to budget constraints and political pressures, the integrity of U.S. data is at risk — with far-reaching implications for government, industry, and citizens alike.
Earlier this month, the American Statistical Association published a report, The Nation’s Data at Risk: Meeting America’s Information Needs for the 21st Century. In it, experts from Amstat outlined the risks, and recommended ways to shore up and protect our national data infrastructure.
In the latest episode of Cross Tabs, I talked to Connie Citro about the findings and recommendations in the report, and she provided me with a comprehensive survey of why the nation collects data, how that data is used and shared among agencies and with the public, the kinds of decisions these data inform, and why it’s essential we do more to safeguard not only the Census, but the other dozen or so statistical agencies as well.
You can listen to that here:
Now — why does that matter to a newsletter and podcast ostensibly about polling? Easy. The way pollsters model the electorate — and predict turnout scenarios — is in large part reliant on federal government-collected data: the decennial Census and the American Community Survey. The way forecasters model their predictions are based on that data as well as economic data, like the GDP, the jobs report, and the unemployment rate. That data, too, is collected by government agencies and published for public consumption and interagency use.
It is not hyperbole to say that without the federal statistical agencies, we would be, as Connie says in our interview, lost.
The Critical Role of Federal Statistics
Federal statistics form the backbone of evidence-based policymaking and inform countless business decisions across the United States. From determining congressional representation to allocating billions in federal funds, these data touch nearly every aspect of American life. The decennial census, unemployment figures, and inflation rates are just a few examples of the critical information produced by federal statistical agencies. Without these objective, high-quality data sources, both public and private sectors would struggle to make informed decisions about resource allocation, economic planning, and social policy.
Challenges Facing Statistical Agencies
Federal statistical agencies are grappling with a perfect storm of challenges. Budget constraints have forced some agencies to reduce sample sizes, potentially compromising data quality. Declining survey response rates — a trend exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic — threaten the representativeness of key national surveys. Additionally, agencies must modernize their data collection methods to keep pace with technological changes and evolving data needs, all while maintaining the highest standards of data integrity and privacy protection. These combined pressures put the future quality and availability of essential national statistics at risk.
Data Sharing Obstacles and Legislative Reform
Despite collecting vast amounts of valuable data, federal statistical agencies face significant legal barriers to sharing information, even among themselves. Outdated laws, such as those governing IRS data access, prevent agencies from efficiently combining datasets to produce more comprehensive and accurate statistics. This fragmentation leads to duplicative efforts and missed opportunities for deeper insights. Legislative reform is needed to create a more integrated federal statistical system while maintaining strict privacy protections.
The Impact of Non-Response on Data Quality
Declining survey response rates pose a serious threat to the accuracy and representativeness of federal statistics. As fewer people participate in surveys, the potential for bias increases, potentially skewing important national indicators. To combat this trend, agencies are exploring innovative approaches, including the use of administrative records and commercial data sources to supplement traditional surveys. However, these methods come with their own challenges and require careful validation to ensure data quality and representativeness.
Protecting Statistical Integrity from Political Interference
Maintaining the objectivity and credibility of federal statistics is crucial for their continued usefulness and public trust. While political influence on statistical agencies is not new, recent high-profile incidents have highlighted the need for stronger safeguards. Ensuring professional autonomy for statistical agencies — allowing them to make methodological decisions based on scientific principles rather than political considerations — is essential for preserving the integrity of national data.
The Importance of Public Awareness and Support
Many Americans are unaware of the critical role federal statistics play in their daily lives and the challenges these agencies face. Increasing public understanding of the value of federal statistics is crucial for garnering support for adequate funding and protecting agencies from political interference. Business leaders, researchers, and citizens all have a stake in ensuring the continued availability of high-quality national data and should advocate for the health of the federal statistical system.
A quick call to action from me to my fellow researchers. If you do nothing else to support the nation’s public data infrastructure and integrity, attribute your sources. From the statistical agencies, to academics parsing large datasets and sharing both the data and their findings, journalists, researchers, business decision makers, and political strategists and pollsters all rely on these data to build our own models, and those models enable us to make better decisions. Report your sources, attribute your data, be as transparent as possible about your methods.
And if you’re so inclined, join some of the citizen advocacy groups that work to protect and enhance the work of our statistical agencies.
You can listen to the episode in full via Apple Podcasts here:
Resources
The reason we’re here: The Nation's Data at Risk. This comprehensive report assesses the health of 13 principal federal statistical agencies and the chief statistician's office, identifying risks to federal statistics and providing recommendations for improvement.
American Statistical Association
Committee on National Statistics
Report on the Evidence Act from Results4America
National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES)
Fundamental Principles for Official Statistics: This document emphasizes citizens' entitlement to high-quality, objective, and useful statistics that can only be provided by the government.
The Census Project: The Census Project advocates for funding and resources for the U.S. Census Bureau, highlighting the importance of public support for federal statistical agencies.
Friends of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Friends of the National Center for Health Statistics: two non-profit organizations you can join or donate to that advocate on behalf of their respective statistical agencies.
Principles and Practices for a Federal Statistical Agency: This publication outlines guidelines for federal statistical agencies, emphasizing the importance of professional autonomy and objective data collection.
Our Guest
Connie Citro is a distinguished expert in federal statistics with over four decades of experience in the field. She served for many years as the director of the Committee on National Statistics at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, where she now continues as a senior scholar. Throughout her career, Citro has been involved in numerous studies on critical statistical issues, including decennial census methodologies, poverty measurement, and the American Community Survey. Her extensive knowledge and experience make her a leading voice in discussions about the health and future of the U.S. federal statistical system.
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