Episode 13: Games People Play, with Valens Games

And a few notes on The Context

There’s a new episode of Cross Tabs available in your feeds that dropped around midnight Eastern last night. We recorded it last Friday, July 19 — after the debate, after the weeks of controversy, after the failed assassination attempt on former President Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, after the RNC — but before President Biden decided to step aside from the campaign and endorse his Vice President, Kamala Harris.

We're living in those weeks that seem like years. The world completely changed just days after we recorded this conversation — but what we discussed is perhaps more important now as we move forward through the next hundred-odd days to the November 5 election than it was before.

It’s a longer episode than normal — but I promise you'll get a lot out of it. It is, decidedly, not about polling. The truth is: some things are really hard to poll.

You can listen to the episode here:

Steve Jobs is often misquoted as saying he doesn’t believe in focus groups, that you can’t ask people what they want. But that’s not the full quote. Here’s the full quote:

Business Week: Did you do consumer research on the iMac when you were developing it?
Steve Jobs: No. We have a lot of customers, and we have a lot of research into our installed base. We also watch industry trends pretty carefully. But in the end, for something this complicated, it’s really hard to design products by focus groups. A lot of times, people don’t know what they want until you show it to them. That’s why a lot of people at Apple get paid a lot of money, because they’re supposed to be on top of these things.

[Emphasis mine. Thanks to this post, since the Businessweek article is behind a paywall.]

Up to this point, Harris has been polling within a few points of Biden in hypothetical matchups against Trump. As of Monday, when she had gained the commitment of the 1,976 delegates needed to clinch the nomination at next month’s convention, the question stopped being hypothetical. We are out of the realm of asking people what they want, and into the realm of showing it to them.

I’m working on a client project that involves showing people a lot of examples of new product features my client would like to offer their customers. A lot of what they’re offering is not just new to them, it’s new to the category. And these features are turning out to be new enough that people are reshuffling their criteria for making purchases in the category, placing this set of offers above more commodified attributes like price and convenience.

When you change the product, sometimes you also change the rubric people use to compare their options and make their decisions.

As we look ahead to polls coming out in the next two weeks, we should not be surprised to see that a lot of things haven’t changed. We should expect both major candidates to maintain a polling floor in the low 40s — party ID is a strong heuristic for candidate selection. Consistent switchers are gonna keep switching.

But we should expect to see the margins start to change. When the choices were two elderly white men who both served four years as President, a rubric for decision-making as a swing voter might have been grounded in perceptions of prices and salaries, or in which candidate was younger and “stronger”. But when the choices change — now one candidate is not elderly, not white, not a man, and has never been President before — maybe the rubric changes, too. So if you do see, for example, “the Obama coalition” look like it has been reassembled, it’s unlikely to be (solely) because voters who were looking at Trump over Biden because of inflation think Harris will be better on inflation; it’s more likely that they will turn to Harris because they think she’s better on something even more salient to them than inflation.

And then of course, there will be voters who rely on another set of heuristics, rooted in outmoded ideas about women, and Black women in particular. This clip is a master class in almost all the embedded cultural stereotypes we're going to confront in the coming days.

A quick note about the polls you’re seeing this week

Ignore them for now.

Seriously. There are a few polls out right now carrying the date of July 22. They fall into two categories:

• Polls that were conducted, typically, July 19-21, and closed fieldwork before or on the day Biden stepped aside. These polls will still be grounded in Biden v. Trump, and a Harris v Trump matchup would have been extremely hypothetical and not yet fully real to poll respondents.
• Polls that were conducted on a single day, July 22, using blended online sample sources to find self-described registered voters, rather than using gold standard methods of tying respondents back to the actual voter file. There’s likely to be a lot of noise in that data, especially when you consider that some claiming to have 1100 or 1300 respondents have a registered voter base size in the 800s nationally. This is going to increase the margin of error significantly, and sample frame-based error will be higher with this method.

The bottom line: These polls are interesting, but they’re not informative. Let’s see what polls conducted this weekend say now that it’s clear and real that Harris is the nominee. Let’s also look to see what the most important issues are, and what the perceived weaknesses and strengths of the candidates appear to be after Harris locked up support from convention delegates and gave some well-covered speeches. Also, don’t sleep on the social media of it all

If you can’t poll your way to an answer, what do you do?

I invited an old friend of mine, Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, and his colleague Amal Ali of Valens Games to talk to me about immersive, strategic games and the role they could play in helping campaigns, parties, and leaders of any kind, engage in the kind of exercises they can use to better understand competing interests and objectives, opportunities they can take and threats to guard against, and work through how they plan to sense and respond to the uncertain days ahead. Here’s an overview of what we talked about:

Immersive gaming exercises revolutionize how we understand and prepare for complex geopolitical scenarios. By allowing participants to inhabit different perspectives and grapple with real-world constraints, these exercises provide insights that traditional analysis often misses, offering a powerful tool for developing strategic empathy and breaking free from cognitive biases. 

The Power of Immersive Gaming Exercises 

Immersive gaming exercises offer a unique approach to analyzing complex situations by allowing participants to step into different roles and experience scenarios from multiple perspectives. Unlike traditional wargaming or scenario planning, these exercises focus on creating a compelling, realistic environment that challenges participants to think and act as they would in the real world. This approach helps reveal hidden dynamics, uncover unexpected consequences, and foster a deeper understanding of the complex interplay between various actors and factors in any situation. 

Strategic Empathy and Perspective-Taking 

One of the critical benefits of immersive exercises is their ability to cultivate strategic empathy — the capacity to understand and anticipate the motivations, constraints, and decision-making processes of other actors. By inhabiting roles that may be vastly different from their own, participants gain insight into how others perceive and respond to challenges. This perspective-taking ability is crucial in fields such as diplomacy, national security, and business strategy, where understanding the viewpoints of adversaries, allies, and stakeholders can make the difference between success and failure. 

Applications in Political Analysis and Decision-Making 

Immersive gaming exercises could provide critical insight for political analysis and decision-making. These techniques could be used to explore the dynamics of an open political convention, helping parties and candidates better understand the complex interplay of factions, interests, and external influences. By simulating various scenarios and allowing participants to experience the consequences of different decisions, these exercises can provide deep insights for strategic planning and risk assessment in political campaigns. 

Breaking Free from Fear-Based Thinking 

One of the most potent aspects of immersive exercises is their ability to help participants break free from fear-based thinking and cognitive biases. By creating a safe space to explore different perspectives and outcomes, these exercises allow participants to challenge their assumptions and consider alternatives that might otherwise be dismissed or overlooked. This can be particularly valuable in high-stakes situations where fear and emotional reactions often cloud judgment and limit creative problem-solving. 

Designing Effective Immersive Experiences 

Practical immersive exercises require a careful balance of realism, complexity, and engagement. Designers must draw on deep subject matter expertise to ensure that the scenarios and roles are authentic and relevant. At the same time, they must craft compelling narratives and interactive elements that keep participants engaged and encourage them to inhabit their roles fully. The most effective exercises often incorporate unpredictability and emergent behavior, allowing unexpected outcomes that challenge participants' assumptions and spark new insights. 

Listen here:

‎Cross Tabs: 13: Games People Play, with Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Amal Ali on Apple Podcasts

‎Show Cross Tabs, Ep 13: Games People Play, with Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Amal Ali - Jul 23, 2024

Apple Podcasts

Resources 

Influence by Robert Cialdini: This book was mentioned as essential reading for understanding psychological operations and influence techniques, particularly in fear-based marketing and decision-making. 

Ezra Klein's column on an open Democratic convention: This article sparked discussion about the complexities of replacing a presidential nominee, highlighting the need for more comprehensive scenario planning in political strategy. 

Kriegsspiel: This 19^th-century German war game was cited as an early example of using simulations for military training, providing historical context for modern wargaming techniques. 

Sarah Longwell's The Focus Group at The Bulwark: These focus group recordings provide insight into voter perspectives on potential presidential candidates, demonstrating the electorate's evolving attitudes. 

Our Guests 

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross
Daveed Gartenstein-Ross is the founder and CEO of the private firm Valens Global and its sister company, Valens Games. He is a practitioner, scholar, and entrepreneur whose career has focused on analyzing complex twenty-first century challenges and forging laudable solutions to them. The director of the U.S. Department of Defense’s Strategic Multilayer Assessment program has described Daveed as “the expert that the experts call to discuss the nettlesome challenges with terrorism and counterterrorism.”

Gartenstein-Ross is also the author or volume editor of over 30 books and monographs, including Enemies Near and Far (Columbia University Press, 2022), which examines ISIS and al-Qaeda’s processes of engaging in organizational learning. He is on the faculty at Carnegie Mellon University and Duke University.

Amal Ali
Amal Ali serves as the Senior Vice President of Strategy at Valens Games, where she specializes in engaging with government and public sector clients. Her career spans military service, intelligence work, and strategic consulting. Ali is a military veteran with experience in the U.S. intelligence community, including work at the agency level and supporting Army and joint special operations. She previously worked with the Psychological Operations Unit in Army Special Operations, bringing deep expertise in strategic communication and influence operations. 

Ali's background in intelligence analysis, coupled with her cross-cultural understanding, informs her approach to game design and facilitation at Valens Games. In her role, she focuses on developing immersive exercises that help decision-makers gain new perspectives on complex geopolitical challenges. 

Your Host 

Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn. 

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